Current Forecast (Located in NAFCU's Economic & CU Monitor, page 6)


Definitions for Macroeconomic Forecast Indicators


Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the total production and consumption of goods and services in the U.S.  GDP is measured on the product side by adding up the labor, capital, and tax costs of producing the output.  On the consumption side, GDP is measured by adding up expenditures by households, businesses, government and net foreign purchases.  This data is used to define business cycle peaks and troughs.  “Real” implies this data is adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.  (Percent change fourth quarter to fourth quarter).

Unemployment Rate
– The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the civilian labor force.  (Annual average).

Consumer Price Index
(CPI) – CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed market basket of consumer goods and services.  The CPI-U (for urban consumers) represents about 80 percent of the total U.S. population and is widely referred to as the inflation rate.  (Annual Rate).

Federal Funds Target Rate – The federal funds target rate is the rate set by the Federal Open Market 
Committee of the Federal Reserve Board (FOMC) for borrowing immediately available funds, primarily 
for one day.  The FOMC meets approximately every six weeks to consider whether any changes need to 
be made to monetary policy.  (Rate stated as of the last day of the period).

2-Year Treasury Rate –
The yields on treasury securities at constant, fixed maturity are constructed by the treasury department, based on the most actively traded marketable treasury securities.  Yields on these issues are based on composite quotes reported by U.S. government securities dealers to the federal reserve bank of New York . (Yield stated as of the last day of the period).


30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate – The average commitment rate for a conventional 30-Year fixed rate 1st mortgage loan.   (Rate stated as of the last day of the period).


FICUs Annual Loan Growth – The growth in loans for all federally insured credit unions. (Percent change from previous year).


FICUs Annual Share Growth – The growth in shares for all federally insured credit unions.  (Percent change from previous year).


Light Vehicle Sales – Light vehicle sales are divided between cars and light trucks (sport utility vehicles, pick-up trucks and vans). Light vehicle sales include both sales of vehicles assembled in North America that are sold in the U.S. and sales of imported vehicles sold in the U.S. It is considered an important indicator of consumer demand, accounting for roughly 25% of total retail sales. It is an annual sales pace that the market refers to when discussing auto and truck sales for the month. (Annual average).


Mortgage Originations – The total dollar volume of 1st mortgages granted on 1-4 family housing. (Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, $ in billions).

Existing Home Sales
– Home sales are compiled by the National Association of Realtors and are reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.  The information is based on monthly reports of existing single-family home sales from boards of realtors and multiple listing systems.  (Annual average, number of units in millions).

New Home Sales
– Indicates the level of new single-family houses sold.  (Annual average, number of units sold).



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CUEG intends to provide the credit union community as well as the general public with a biannual report discussing both current macroeconomic conditions as well as credit union-specific financial activity in each of the five NCUA regions. 
Regional Report
One of the foremost purposes for CUEG is to provide a broad perspective on a variety of macroeconomic and credit union growth trends. A consensus forecast on the U.S. economic landscape is provided to the public free of charge.  
Economic Forecast
Through detailed planning sessions among the membership, the issuance of press releases on all current work products, and meetings with the Federal Reserve Board, CUEG intends to remain quite active throughout the calendar year.